NC-Sen: All Tied Up?

H/t to HellOfaSandwich in Breaking Blue for the news that a new Insider Advantage poll has Road To 60 Democratic challenger Kay Hagan now tied with do-nothing incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) at just under 40% each. The fact that Other and Undecideds add up to a full 20% speaks volumes about North Carolinians' discontent with Dole as their senator. An incumbent who can't even get 40% is a huge problem.

I do wonder whether the poll may have oversampled Democrats though, since the poll lists an equal number of respondents who identify as Democrats as identify as Republicans but this is a great boost to Hagan who'd seen Dole retake a fairly solid lead in some polls (Pollster's trend estimate has Dole up by 8%.) While we'll look for subsequent polls to confirm whether this new tightening is real, it does look like the new air offensive by the DSCC, MoveOn and Hagan herself may be paying some dividends.

More on the poll from Swing State Project:

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 45-43 in North Carolina. Hagan currently outperforms Obama among white voters (who break 54-33 for McCain, and 46-34 for Dole), but lags Obama's performance among African-Americans (who favor Obama by 75-17, but Hagan only by 61-24). If Hagan can cut down on cross-over voting among black voters and make a steady gain among whites, she could be in a good position for an upset by election day.

You can help Kay Hagan out over at our Road To 60 ActBlue page.



Display:


The poll undersamples Democrats, if anything (none / 0)

The proportion in NC is something like D-46, R-36 right now. A lot of those 'Democrats' tend to vote Republican nationally, of course (a common pattern in the South.)

Party identification was about equal in 2004, but things have changed a lot since then.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 09:21:18 PM EST

the DSCC is running 2 great (none / 0)

ads.

one straight attack.

one attack comparing dole to bush with two guys in rocking chairs.

Obama should make his own version of it


McCain - a serial Opportunist, from marriage to policy positions
by TarHeel on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 09:25:47 PM EST

Re: the DSCC is running 2 great (none / 0)

i didn't care for the ad but perhaps it has been effective.


!
by alex100 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 11:30:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Prediction (2.00 / 1)

Hagan will the new senator from NC. Period.


I proudly support Barack Obama for President!
by Zeitgeist9000 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 09:49:19 PM EST

Re: NC-Sen: All Tied Up? (none / 0)

Interesting poll.  Only Obama is up on North Carolina with ads.

This shows that Obama CAN will in North Carolina.


by puma on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 09:49:24 PM EST

Obama and the black vote (none / 0)

Why do all these polls say McCain is going to get nearly 20% of the black vote?  Bush only got 11% and there is no way McCain is going to improve on those numbers.  I spent 6 weeks working for Obama in Virginia and talked to literally thousands of African-Americans.  I'd say at MOST 2% supported McCain.


John McCain wants to stay in Iraq for a century.
by jkfp2004 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 09:54:05 PM EST

Re: NC-Sen: All Tied Up? (none / 0)

Right now the party affiliation breakdown by voter registration is D45 R33 I22, but as mentioned above alot of the registered Dems vote Rep at the federal level and Dem at the state level, so 40-40-20 is certainly believable.


by jimotto on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:05:40 PM EST

Re: NC-Sen: All Tied Up? (none / 0)

Party affiliation as of 8/16/08 is
D 45.3
R 32.8
U 21.8

So far in 2008, NC has added 303,626 voters to the registration rolls, including:
D 166,357
U 117,193
R  19,400
L     676

Only 6.4% of the new voters have registered Republican, vs. 54.8% DEM.  You've gotta like that.


Enough is enough!
by Bear83 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 11:16:37 PM EST

URL for stats being posted: (none / 0)

http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/NCSBE/VR /VR%20Stats/vr_stats_main.asp


!
by alex100 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 11:26:52 PM EST


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