Shocking poll: White working class voters support Obama 47-37

In a poll that is sure to spin many heads in the punditsphere, white working class voters support Barack Obama over John McCain by 10 points, or 47-37.

These are not union voters. And they are not Democrats. They are all white working class voters.

The poll, conducted by the Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation, and Harvard University sampled the opinions of workers ages 18-64 who work at least 30 hours a week and make $27,000 a year or less. The poll sampled whites and non-whites in the working class - not surprisingly, Obama absolutely dominates among non-whites in that class - but the numbers among the white working class are noteworthy.

These white working class voters care more about economic issues than anybody else. They want politicians to pay attention to their concerns and offer specific solutions. That's why Hillary Clinton did so well among them. Obama has similar solutions and has talked about them with working class voters many times. But he needs to get out there more and do that.

This poll explains why WV and KY are closer than people expected, by the way. Obama lost by 40 points in the primary there. But he only trails by about 10 in KY (Kerry lost by 20), and by 7 in WV.

It also explains his appeal in the Mountain West, where racial tensions are lower. It isn't just well-to-do Independents driving up Obama's numbers in Montana; it's working class voters who have suffered under the Bush economy.

This election is perfectly set up for Obama. Drive home the economy day in and day out. Don't get distracted by the idiotic character attacks except to mock them. Let surrogates do the attacking back. Talk about health care. Talk about the new compromise energy plan that he supports now. Talk about jobs and the economy and trade.



Display:


Bingo! (2.00 / 3)

D'ya think it might have something to do with the fact that we have the Republican candidate acknowledging he 'doesn't know much about the economy' while he still seeks to support Bush's "Doodoo Economics" if he's elected to then have the opportunity to continue them?

Or, maybe it has something to do with the reality that Bush's own former Secretary of the Treasury as well as his former SEC Commissioner just came out and endorsed the Democratic candidate this past week?


by bobswern on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 12:29:45 AM EST

Yes, yes and (how many was that?) yes again, (2.00 / 1)

just to be safe.  yes.

You're making under $27K in this economy, you have nothing to lose by changing out the idiots who are in charge of it.

You look at the TV, you see a doddering fool chuckling lamely to tiny crowds, and you see a vigorous bold guy everyone seems to have found a reason to admire.

It doesn't take third-year physics to start to think there may be something going on that can't be worse than that paycheck that didn't cover a tank of gas.

Got a link to the numbers, elrod?

-chris


Motley Moose: Progress Through Politics
by chrisblask on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 01:15:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I feel a song coming on... (none / 0)

The McCain campaign theme song:

Don't know much about diplomacy,
Don't know much about energy,
Don't know much about the economy,
Don't know much about you and me...

[With apologies to Art Garfunkel]


by KTinOhio on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 02:24:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I feel a song coming on... (2.00 / 1)

I think that's Sam Cooke, is it not?


I'm voting for Saxby Chambliss!
by Jess81 on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 02:45:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I feel a song coming on... (none / 0)

Originally, yes.  It was covered by Art Garfunkel, James Taylor, and Paul Simon in the late '70s.  (It's on one of Garfunkel's albums.)


by KTinOhio on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:30:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You're quickly becoming one of my... (2.00 / 1)

...favorite diarists around here! Keep up the great work! Rec'd!


by bobswern on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 12:30:35 AM EST

Re: You're quickly becoming one of my... (2.00 / 2)

Thanks.


by elrod on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 12:41:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Shocking poll: White working class voters supp (2.00 / 2)

This is truly a "bitter" pill for McCain.


by rfahey22 on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 12:58:23 AM EST

I don't get it then (2.00 / 1)

Shouldn't Obama be leading by an average of double digits in every poll if he really is performing this well among working class whites, considering how well he performs among the upper-income folks?  Gallup recently noted that Obama had maintained a sizable advantage over MCcCain among the college educated, which is different from past dems.  If Obama is performing this well among working class whites, is one possible explanation for why his lead is around four points only that he has lost his edge or relative advantage compared to past dems among the upper-income?


by Blazers Edge on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 01:03:21 AM EST

I know what you mean (2.00 / 1)

the polls in general don't seem to reflect what I see in the real world.  I have yet to find one person waxing poetic - or even optimistic - about McCain.

Polls are historically pretty bad indicators of future events, from what I recall.  And I think there are factors at play that make this year's polls worse than usual.

We'll see in November, and until then we'll fret, but I'd bet my right big toe that the GE does not match current polling by a wide margin (and I really like that toe...).

-chris


Motley Moose: Progress Through Politics
by chrisblask on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 01:20:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Not so shocking. (2.00 / 1)

This isn't news - Obama kills among people making less than 30k a year regardless of race.  The press just doesn't know it.

I hope they report on this though.  And do so without pulling out the one subgroup favorable to McCain as the story: "A new poll out by the Kaiser Foundation and Harvard University shows Obama struggling with voters who drink between three and six beers a day."


I'm voting for Saxby Chambliss!
by Jess81 on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 02:12:28 AM EST

Definitely good news (none / 0)

Though it does shed light on the importance of this voting group in key states.  Clinton would have been up by 2X this amount and actually challenging to win states like TN, AR, KY, WV.   Though of course Obama is threatening in VA and CO which Clinton would not have been.   Different areas of strength.  


by activatedbybush on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:40:52 AM EST

Uh, no (none / 0)

This group of voters cited by Kaiser is the working poor, not the working class (generally defined as people with no education past high school and/or an income of less than 50k).


by david mizner on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:44:21 AM EST

Depends where you live (none / 0)

There are many definition of the working class. The key here is that these folks work 30 hours a week and earn less than $27,000.

Now, if you live in a major metropolitan area and earn less than $27,000, you are the working poor.

But if you live where I do - in Southern Appalachia - then a $27,000 per year salary is simply the working class. Local sheriff's deputies around here make about $25,000 a year.

Housing is MUCH cheaper here than in the big cities, so salaries in the 20k range go a long way.


by elrod on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:09:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Shocking poll: White working class voters supp (none / 0)

Rec'd. You can fool all the people some of the time. but this proves you can't fool all the people all of the time.

GOBAMA!


"But not me personally were those cheers for"
by QTG on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:48:14 AM EST


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