MyDD :: Gallup Updates: Obama up by 4 points

Gallup Updates: Obama up by 4 points

by omosege, Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 01:09:30 PM EST

Obama now leads McCain by 4 points according to the latest Gallup poll. It's hard to know what may be responsible for the upward trend, but could it be that people have now wised up to see the follies in the stunts pulled by McCain last week. You may also noticed that McCain came up with a positive ad this moring, probably his internal polls are showing he is heading for defeat if he continues with his childish behavor.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx

Tags: Obama, McCain, Gallup (all tags)

Permalink :: 18 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Gallup Updates: Obama up by 4 points (2.00 / 1)

Or it's all just noise?

by Whash on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 01:31:58 PM EST

Re: Gallup Updates: Obama up by 4 points (none / 0)

Exactly. Tracking polls are only good for identifying trends, (7 or 14 day moving avg at least).

Tracking polls are worthless wrt identifying precise numbers, at a given point in time.

I wish people knew more about statistics.

Obama/Adam West or Bruce Campbell or Lucy Lawless '08

by Purple with Green Stipes and Pink Polka Dots Dem on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 01:44:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup Updates: Obama up by 4 points (none / 0)

It is going in the right direction

by BDM on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 01:32:51 PM EST

lord (none / 0)

it is a friggen daily tracker... the ONLY way these polls matter to ANY extent is if you take a large time frame and look at the lines that way.

IF Obama is ahead consistently for 10 - 14 days then you can reasonably say he is leading, likewise McCain.

For people to hyperventilate about daily trackers is silly. To try and ascribe concrete reasons for minuscule shifts (anything less that 8 to 9 points in a day) is the height of folly and akin to masturbation.

by notedgeways on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 01:41:00 PM EST

Re: lord (none / 0)

Not even that. Take the margin of error and look at the midpoint - the daily tracker is bound to fluctuate +X and -X over time (i.e., if he's actually at 47%, Gallup should fluctuate between 49% and 45%).

by rfahey22 on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 01:45:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama up by 4 points (2.00 / 1)

It's like watching stock every day. The ups and downs will make you crazy. I remember when Gallup would not begin tracking until October. Look for the overall direction and the trend is still with Obama.

by RandyMI on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 01:50:54 PM EST

Re: Gallup Updates: Obama up by 4 points (none / 0)

Obama should be up by 12 to 15 pts.

Nothing to celebrate about.

This 4 pts. could disappear tomorrow.

by labanman on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 01:53:20 PM EST

Re: Gallup Updates: Obama up by 4 points (2.00 / 1)

Go back to night school.

Obama/Adam West or Bruce Campbell or Lucy Lawless '08

by Purple with Green Stipes and Pink Polka Dots Dem on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 02:05:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup Updates: Obama up by 4 points (none / 0)

And be back the day after.

McSame '08: Against All Hope - and Proud of It

by Its All So Goofy on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 02:05:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup Updates: Obama up by 4 points (none / 0)

Blah, blah, blah, be bop ta boo bop!

by Spanky on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 02:51:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'should' (none / 0)

Oh, hear we go again.

Saxby Chambliss: Asshat

by mikeinsf on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 03:02:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

oooooooooooopsy (none / 0)

'here'

Saxby Chambliss: Asshat

by mikeinsf on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 03:03:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup Updates: Obama up by 4 points (none / 0)

Where have I heard this argument before?

"Obama is only slightly ahead... Sure he's winning, but can you really call it winning if you're not light years ahead of your opponent??"

"Why can't Obama close the deal?!"

Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics

by BishopRook on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 03:30:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup Updates: Obama up by 4 points (none / 0)

And if he were ahead 12 points, you'd say he ought be ahead by 24.

What's the point of your arbitrary numbers?

by Aris Katsaris2 on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 07:04:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup Updates: Obama up by 4 points (none / 0)

I think something is happening in this race which is similar to what occurred during the primaries. There are a large % of uncommitted voters this year (between 10-20%) who aren't crazy about either candidate. When one has a good week it focuses attention, and these voters respond with, "You know, there's something about this candidate I just don't like", and so the numbers start to tumble. What we're hearing isn't statistical noise but the sound of each candidate bumping their heads against the ceiling.

by IncognitoErgoSum on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 01:53:51 PM EST

At least Gallup Gets More Media than Rasmussen (none / 0)

Good!

by Davidsfr on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 02:09:26 PM EST

Re: Gallup Updates: Obama up by 4 points (none / 0)

I think when Obama started talking about the energy problem and his eneregy policy and giving americans help with their heating and cooling bills, voters started to listen and understand that he feels their pain and wants to do something about it, and that he is not so inflexible that he can't see both sides of the same coin.

by Spanky on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 02:49:49 PM EST

Re: Gallup Updates: Obama up by 4 points (none / 0)

AP/Ipsos up by 6...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/0 8/obama_leads_mccain_nationally.php

I still think he's up by about four or so, and that was after a great week for McCain.

by NewOaklandDem on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 03:38:06 PM EST

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